Friday, 4 PM. Tariffs announced. €50M in programs underwater.
Monday morning, we had a new strategy.
Not because we had perfect information. Because we stopped waiting for it.
Here’s what separates organizations that survive chaos from those that don’t:
Speed of decision beats quality of information.
The Myth Killing Your Speed
Most leaders think good decisions require complete information.
They’re wrong.
By the time you have complete information, the decision doesn’t matter anymore. The supplier went bankrupt. The regulation changed. The competitor moved. The window closed.
“Wait and see” isn’t avoiding a decision. It’s deciding to let circumstances decide for you.
That’s almost always the wrong choice.
The truth:
70% information executed today beats 100% information that arrives too late.
That’s the pattern successful leaders follow in crisis.
Why Traditional Decision-Making Fails
Traditional approach assumes you have time.
Time to gather data. Time to analyze options. Time to build consensus. Time to optimize.
Crisis doesn’t give you time.
Early in my career, a supplier showed financial warning signs. I wanted more data before deciding whether to exit.
“Let’s wait for quarterly results. Let’s get third-party assessment. Let’s see what competitors do.”
Two months later: bankruptcy. Four weeks of inventory. No qualified alternative. Programs at risk.
We survived by throwing money at the problem. Crash-qualified alternatives. Lost customer credibility.
All because I waited for certainty that never came.
I stopped doing that.
What Actually Works
That tariff weekend taught me more than my PhD.
Saturday morning. I had to decide:
- Which suppliers to switch (30+ components)
- Which components to redesign (weeks of work)
- Which costs to absorb (millions in impact)
- Which programs to reprice (customer relationships at stake)
Traditional approach: three weeks. I had three days.
Here’s what worked.
Recognize What Kind of Decision This Is
Some decisions you can undo. Some you can’t.
Reversible: Switch suppliers. Adjust pricing. Shift resources. If you’re wrong, you can fix it.
Irreversible: Close factories. Exit markets. Terminate key relationships. Once done, it’s done.
Reversible decisions? Move fast with less information.
Irreversible decisions? Move fast enough.
That weekend, most decisions were reversible. That changed everything.
New supplier doesn’t work? Switch back. Six-month contracts. Multiple alternatives existed.
The risk wasn’t existential. That freed me to move.
The decision:
| Can you undo this? | Information needed | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60-70% | Hours to days |
| Partially | 75-85% | Days to week |
| No | 85-90% | Week maximum |
Most decisions are more reversible than you think.
Stop treating everything as irreversible. That’s what slows you down.
Know What Information Actually Matters
Not “what would be nice to know.” What’s essential to decide?
That weekend, I needed:
- Current costs vs. tariff impact (had it)
- Alternative supplier pricing (got it in 24 hours)
- Technical feasibility of switch (confirmed in 48 hours)
Everything else? Nice-to-have. Moved without it.
By Saturday afternoon, I had 60% of ideal information.
Old me would have waited for more.
New me asked: “Is this enough to make a decision that’s probably right?”
Yes.
The filter:
For each piece of information, ask: “Does this change the decision?”
If yes, get it. If no, ignore it.
Most information people want doesn’t change the decision. It just makes them feel better about deciding.
Feeling better isn’t worth the delay.
Quantify the Cost of Waiting
Sometimes waiting costs nothing. Then wait.
Usually waiting costs something. Options narrow. Prices increase. Competitors move.
Make it concrete:
“What does 24 hours cost us?”
That weekend: every day of delay meant suppliers getting commitments from our competitors. Inventory running lower. Customer anxiety increasing.
Waiting wasn’t free. I moved.
The calculation:
Cost of deciding today with 70% information vs. cost of deciding tomorrow with 75% information.
If the cost of delay exceeds the value of additional information, decide now.
Usually does.
Get Input Fast
That weekend, I needed three perspectives:
- Engineering (technical feasibility) - 15 minutes
- Finance (cost impact) - 15 minutes
- Legal (contract implications) - 15 minutes
Total consultation time: 45 minutes.
Then I decided.
Didn’t need:
- Lengthy consensus building
- Everyone’s opinion
- Perfect alignment
The approach:
Identify who has information or authority you genuinely need. Three people maximum.
Focused questions. Time-boxed conversations. Get input. Decide.
Consultation isn’t consensus. You’re gathering data, not votes.
Communicate With Clarity
Monday morning. Team call.
Wrong approach: “We’re evaluating options and will provide updates as information becomes available.”
Right approach: “We’re switching suppliers for Components X, Y, Z. Transition starts Wednesday. We’re absorbing costs on A and B. Timeline here. Ownership here. Questions?”
Clear. Decisive. Specific.
The template:
Every crisis decision needs five things:
- What we decided (one sentence, no ambiguity)
- Why we decided it (three key reasons)
- What it means (specific impacts)
- What happens next (timeline and ownership)
- Where to get more information (specific contacts)
That’s it.
People don’t need perfect decisions. They need clear direction.
Vagueness creates panic. Clarity creates stability, even when the decision isn’t ideal.
Real Situations, Real Decisions
Supplier Bankruptcy: 24 Hours
Friday afternoon. Supplier filed for bankruptcy. Critical component. Six weeks of inventory. No qualified alternative.
Options:
- Buy their inventory (€5M, quality unknown)
- Crash-qualify alternatives (risky, expensive)
- Redesign component (8 weeks minimum)
Decision: All three simultaneously.
Spent €5M to buy time. Started crash qualification. Launched redesign as backup.
Expensive? Yes. But we needed multiple paths because we didn’t know which would work.
Two weeks later: qualified alternatives. Redesign unnecessary. €5M bought us the time to avoid much bigger problems.
The principle:
When uncertainty is high, run parallel paths. Costs more upfront. Buys optionality.
Quality Failure: 30 Minutes
Tuesday morning. Customer reported safety-critical failure. Our component. Potential recall.
Decision in 30 minutes: Stop all production.
Didn’t wait for root cause. Didn’t wait for complete information. Stopped.
Better to over-react and look foolish than under-react and hurt someone.
Root cause found by end of day. Fix implemented in 48 hours. Production resumed.
Customer said our immediate response is what preserved the relationship. They trusted we took it seriously.
The principle:
Safety and reputation issues? Bias toward immediate action. You can always restart. You can’t undo harm.
Geopolitical Crisis: One Week
Regional conflict. Major supplier in affected area. 40% of portfolio at risk.
Not immediate crisis. Strategic vulnerability.
Had one week. Used it.
Day 1-2: Assessment. Inventory levels. Alternative suppliers. Qualification timelines.
Day 3-4: Strategy. Prioritized by criticality. Immediate dual-sourcing for critical components. 90-day qualification for important ones. Monitor-only for commodities.
Day 5: Executive review.
Week 2: Execution.
The principle:
When you have time, use it for strategy, not perfection. Nuanced approach beats reactive pivot.
The Stuff That Actually Matters
You’ll Make Wrong Decisions
I switched a supplier during that tariff crisis. They couldn’t ramp fast enough. We switched again three months later.
Failure? No.
The alternative was absorbing 25% cost increase. The risk of trying was worth it. When it didn’t work, we adjusted.
That’s the pattern: Decide. Act. Learn. Adjust. Move again.
Speed Is a Skill
I can make 5-7 major decisions well in a day. After that, judgment degrades.
So I:
- Batch similar decisions together
- Take breaks between major calls
- Delegate everything that doesn’t need me
- Protect sleep even in crisis (especially in crisis)
Decision-making is a muscle. It fatigues. Manage it.
Your Team Mirrors You
If you’re visibly panicking, they panic.
What works:
- Six hours sleep minimum (not negotiable)
- Daily exercise, even just 20-minute walks
- One person outside the crisis you can vent to (not your team)
Maintaining equilibrium isn’t selfish. It’s essential.
Your team takes emotional cues from you. Stay clear-headed.
Most Crises Aren’t Existential
They feel existential in the moment. Usually they’re not.
The company existed before you. It’ll exist after you. This probably isn’t life or death.
Perspective helps.
What Changes After Enough Crises
I assume incomplete information now.
Don’t wait for certainty. Act at 70% confidence for reversible decisions, 85% for irreversible.
I time-box every decision.
“We decide by 3 PM Friday regardless of what we know.” Forces decision. Prevents endless analysis.
I communicate clearly, not cautiously.
People need direction, not hedging.
I accept that some decisions will be wrong.
That’s not failure. That’s chaos. The goal is deciding fast enough to adjust when reality proves you wrong.
Most importantly:
I separated “I don’t know” from “I can’t decide.”
You’ll never know everything. But you can still decide.
That’s the shift.
The Simple Framework
When chaos hits, five questions:
1. Can I undo this if I’m wrong?
If yes: decide fast (60-70% information)
If no: decide fast enough (85-90% information, but set hard deadline)
2. What information actually changes the decision?
Get that. Ignore everything else.
3. What does waiting 24 hours cost?
If cost is real, decide now.
4. Who has information I need to decide?
Get their input. 15 minutes each. Three people max.
5. How do I communicate this clearly?
What we decided. Why. What it means. What happens next.
That’s it.
Not rocket science. Just speed.
After Each Crisis
Within 48 hours: 60-minute debrief with key people.
Four questions:
- What did we expect?
- What actually happened?
- Why the difference?
- What do we do differently next time?
Document what worked. Build playbooks.
Next similar crisis, you move faster because you’ve seen this pattern before.
Example playbook: Supplier Bankruptcy
| Timeline | Actions |
|---|---|
| Day 1 | Inventory assessment, alternative supplier contact, legal review |
| Day 2-3 | Decide: continue vs. exit, secure inventory, customer communication |
| Week 1 | Execute transition or stabilization |
| Week 2 | Debrief and playbook update |
Build these over time. Each crisis teaches you how to handle the next one better.
That’s organizational learning velocity.
What This Actually Looks Like
That tariff weekend nearly broke me.
Made the decisions. Executed the plan. Programs stayed on track.
Monday night, my director called. “How do you feel?”
“Honestly? Uncertain about half the calls I made.”
He laughed. “Welcome to leadership. You decided with the information you had, in the time you had. That’s the job.”
He was right.
Crisis leadership isn’t about being right. It’s about being decisive when being right isn’t possible.
The next crisis comes Friday at 4 PM.
You won’t have perfect information. You won’t have unlimited time. You won’t have certainty.
Decide anyway.
Clearly. Quickly enough to matter.
Then adjust when reality shows you what you missed.
That’s how you lead through chaos.
Not perfectly. Just effectively enough to survive and learn from it.
The organizations that master this don’t predict better. They learn faster when predictions fail.
They decide. Act. Learn. Adjust. Move again.
That’s the pattern.
Build it now, before you need it.
Because you will need it.